The peace deal between the US and the Taliban was signed by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as a witness.
A few days ago, the United States and the Taliban finally reached an understanding with regards to the future of Afghanistan. The peace deal between the two was signed by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as a witness. The agreement signed in Doha, Qatar seemed to be more about the Taliban’s future in Afghanistan, rather than the future of the country. For their part of the bargain, the United States agreed not to dictate or impose any particular political, social, and to a great extent, moral, order in Afghanistan. Now it is up to the internal stakeholders in Afghanistan. The internal stakeholders are many, such as the Talibani organisations that signed an agreement with the US, the Talibani groups that were not part of this deal, the official Afghan government, the Islamic State in Khorasan, and other non-Talibani mujahidin groups staking claims in the new probable power-sharing arrangement in Afghanistan.
It has to be asked, however, as to who will ensure that these players will remain under one roof for negotiations to deliberate upon a power-sharing arrangement. That is not known. What is known is the unhappiness of the official Afghan government regarding the entire process of negotiations between the US administration and the Taliban, as the latter has rejected the former as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan. Without involving the official Afghan government in the negotiations process, the United States expects it to play a responsible role in dealing with the armed opposition groups in the country, particularly the Taliban. On the other hand, the non-Pashtun mujahidin groups in the northern parts of Afghanistan are waiting for an opportune moment to advance towards Kabul. Similarly, the Talibani elements with close links to the Al-Qaeda, who were excluded from the Doha negotiations and the signing of the deal, are likely to engage in more violence to derail the peace process. Many such Al-Qaeda inspired Talibani Jihadis may switch their allegiance to the Islamic State in Khorasan to pose a challenge to the newly emerging order in Afghanistan. The Talibani organizations that signed the agreement with the US have only made assurances on their part that there would be a significant reduction in violence, but have not promised an end to violence altogether. Therefore, it can be argued that the Doha Peace Deal has the potential to escalate violence in Afghanistan.
On its part, the United States has promised to withdraw all of its combat and defence forces within 14 months of signing the agreement. It means there will be no US military presence in Afghanistan after April 2021, provided that Donald Trump retains the occupancy of the White House. President Trump promised that he would withdraw American forces from Afghanistan during his presidential election campaign, which he stands to fulfil now. It is altogether a different matter that the US has failed to meet its objectives in Afghanistan even after 18 long years of military campaigns. It is the longest continuously running US military campaign in any country.
If circumstances lead to the US launching a military campaign against Iran in the near future, it will be free of the Afghan baggage. The Trump administration may not consider it a viable option to take Iran on militarily while continuing the fight against the Taliban. However, President Trump is also clever enough to understand that defeating the Islamic regime in Iran is a near-impossible task, which will likely make him rethink possible war plans to topple the government in Teheran. Therefore, it is likely that harsh sanctions against Iran will continue combined with choice verbal offensives directed at the Teheran regime. As the US seems determined to continue its hostile engagement with Iran, other countries are likely to eye the vacant space in Afghanistan. Russia, China, and Iran can back up different formations in Afghanistan to ensure their own strategic reach in the country. While Russia and Iran are clearly not comfortable with good or bad Taliban, China doesn’t mind doing business with anyone. The game to dominate Afghanistan continues unabated. At this moment, however, the emerging winner is Pakistan, which has consistently played a patient game in the region.
Column
Parimal Maya Sudhakar
5th March 2020
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Read this article published in Asiaville on 5th March 2020