Farmers’ Resistance: Nemesis of Modi?

The government’s adamant insistence on the 3 farms bills signals an either-or situation. Either Modi has miscalculated the entire gamble or he wants to pit poor and marginal farmers against the middleclass and rich farmers.

Everything works for Modi and nothing works against him. This has been the experience of Narendra Modi’s friends and foes alike since he became Chief Minister of Gujarat. He has faced many critical moments, from the Gujarat riots to the momentous crisis of migrant workers during the lock down. However, none resulted in a slide in his popularity amongst the masses. On the contrary, he has mastered the art of converting a crisis into a challenge, a challenge into an opportunity,  and an opportunity into an advantage. This was best demonstrated by him when Rahul Gandhi raised the slogan Chowkidar Chor Hai, which had begun to gain popular currency in the runup to Lok Sabha election. Modi countered the slogan by administering the mei bhi chowkidar oath to his followers and BJP voters. Congress remained clueless on how to counter Modi’s offensive to Rahul Gandhi’s taunts in the 2019 election. Neither the rising rate of unemployment nor the spurt in cases of mob lynching seemed to dent Modi’s acceptability across almost all sections of society.

On the other hand, he was being praised by his followers for stubbornly pushing or facilitating the right-wing agenda in Indian society. The agenda and its implementation become far more important than debates and consultations in the decision-making process. The demonetization and implementation of GST were praised for its shock effect and side-lining of opposition parties respectively, rather than its actual benefits to the economy and people at large. The surgical strikes had more rhetorical appeal than the actual results and effects on ground in terms of reduction in militancy in Kashmir or cross border infiltrations. The reading down of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 were seen as good measures to downsize the scope of secularism and space of minorities in Indian polity. The opposition’s arguments didn’t cut much ice with the ordinary people on any of these matters. All of this has certainly emboldened the Modi dispensation to act at will on any agenda at any time of its choice.

The second occasion when Prime Minister Modi backtracked was his refusal to make India part of RCEP in November 2019. This was much more significant for two reasons. One, as against in 2015, he had as Priem Minsiter established firm control over all wings of governance, within the BJP and in the NDA as well. He had just created history as the first non-Congress Prime Minister to emerge victorious in a second consecutive Lok Sabha election. Thus, he had no reason to be apprehensive about anything. Two, unlike the amendments in the Land Acquisition Act, he was simply carrying forward the work initiated by the Manmohan Singh government. It was the UPA that had engaged with the south-east and east Asian countries for the free trade agreement. The Prime Minister could have simply called any opposition by the Congress to India’s entry into RCEP as hypocrisy, while the media would have championed it as another master-stroke by Modi. However, Prime Minister Modi held himself and his government back, fearing a backlash from the farmers and dairy producers. Thus, a common factor in both the cases was apprehension about his government’s image in the farming community. Given this backdrop, the Modi government’s hurried insistence on issuing ordinances and pushing the legislations is politically puzzling.

When the country had begun to come to terms with the pandemic, the government issued the ordinances. At a time, when the spread of COVID-19 is at its peak in India, the government has rushed to get the parliamentary clearance for the bills to replace the ordinances. What is the emergency? Who is demanding such urgent action? What is the real source of pressure on the government? Are the state governments consulted on the matter? Were farmers’ organizations taken into confidence on the bills? Has the Modi government made up its mind to take the protesting farmers head-on? But the protesting farmers are not anti-CAA protesters! The anti-CAA protesters were tackled by polarizing the country on religious grounds. How will the protesting farmers be tackled?

The government’s adamant insistence on the 3 farms bills signals an either-or situation. Either Modi has miscalculated the entire gamble or he wants to pit poor and marginal farmers against the middleclass and rich farmers. Demonizing the APMC and the middle men in the agriculture produce procurement business would mean speaking up against the middleclass and rich farmers. People who control the APMC and the middlemen are not the ones who exclusively come from outside the farming community. Thus, the task for Modi is to convince the poor farmers that liberalizing procurement process will lift them out of poverty. He has to do it in the vast socialistic heartland of India, where the ethos of disdain for capital and the wealthy still looms large. One of the major reasons of the heartland’s passionate love for Modi has been his ‘poor boy who sold tea’ image. The most eminent concern for Modi should be what if poor farmers in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh begin to hyphen his name with Ambani and Adani? The poor whole-heartedly accepted demonetization, despite all the hardship, as it was viewed as the measure against wealth of unscrupulous wealthy people. This time Modi has to convince the masses that opening up agriculture produce procurement to the superrich capitalists will be of benefit to the poor farmers. Will he? Won’t he? If he can’t, the agricultural reform bills will prove to be his nemesis.